Home Projects & Activities Events About GRIH Donate Contact

  

The Economy

Aren’t the Good Times Good Anymore?


By Michael R. Fox Ph.D.

Sure they are, but someone needs to speak up.  For the first time in our nation’s history the DOW Jones Industrial Averages closed above 12,000 on October 19, 2006.  The stock market has fully recovered from the dot.com burst beginning in March of 2000.  With nearly 70% of the public either directly or indirectly invested, this is very good news.  Yet the media are unseemly mute if not derogatory.

According to Nancy Waitz of the Washington Post, the jobless rates fell last week by 10,000 workers from 309,000 to 299,000.  This is a small number historically and reflects the major economic activity taking place across the entire nation.    (http://tinyurl.com/y2sa7g). 

Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index as reported in the Rassmussen Report is now at a 120.5 the highest it’s been in 2006 and far above its high of 83 in 2003. (http://tinyurl.com/du5qo).

Home ownership is at an all time high, interest rates are still pretty good, still beneath 6%.  While housing starts have finally declined somewhat as a result of overbuilding, Donald Trump recently pointed out that this means that real estate values will be climbing in the future. 

Remarkably, according to the Associated Press the budget deficit has been cut in half 3 years before it was predicted, down to $247.7 billion. (http://tinyurl.com/ymrnk3).

While this is in absolute terms is a large number, in terms of the fraction of the gross domestic product for our nation this is 1.9%. Many European nations would give their first born for such a small number. 

This huge deficit reduction is directly connected to the tax cuts of President Bush 3 years ago.  Democratic tax and spenders simply cannot accept this simple relationship that lower taxes means larger revenues to the treasury.  From Russia, to Ireland, to Hong Kong, and Eastern Europe cutting taxes has resulted in increased revenues.

Larry Kudlow made a great observation (http://tinyurl.com/q2tam), that since those tax cuts in June of 2003, the economy has added $2.2 trillion to the economic pie, a 20% increase.  This increment is about the same as the ENTIRE economy of today’s China, and much larger than those of Mexico, India, and others. The incentives and benefits of lower tax rates are incredible when permitted to work.

Yet tax and spenders from ranging Charles Rangel of Harlem to Senator Daniel Akaka of Hawaii promise to eliminate the tax cuts, increase our taxes, and thereby increase the budget deficit. There would be nothing so destructive to our great economy than to reverse these tax cuts, and put an end to our economy and prosperity.  Those tax dollars are our dollars not the government’s and the taxpayers deserve to take more of it home.

Remarkably, President Kennedy also supported tax cuts which predictably resulted in revenue increases. His lessons have been studiously ignored. The budgets under Clinton originated in the House as do all spending bills.  At the time the House was led by Newt Gingrich and other conservatives. These originators of spending bills at that time had the spending discipline of the House, not Clinton.  And about those tax cuts for the rich?  The top 1% of taxpayers now pays 34.3% of the total.  The top 50% now pay 96.5% of the total.  In a better world one could say that the bottom 50% which pays only 3.5% seem to be a little light on tax payments.  The mantra of “tax cuts for the rich” can’t withstand honest scrutiny.

The other problems facing all of us now are the tendencies for both parties to spend like drunken sailors.  While President Bush can claim a lot of credit for these prosperous times, we all would have been even better off if the Congress had been less profligate and President Bush had not been so reluctant to veto the spending bills. 

Yet just look at the incredible economy we now have and rarely seen in election season.  George Will (http://tinyurl.com/v2vgg) points out that the unemployment rate among college graduates is 2%.  The need for an educated workforce is obvious and growing. We hear remarks from Democratic leaders which reveal obliviousness if not sour grapes to the current economic facts.

Nancy Pelosi promises to “jump start the economy” if the Democrats get the majority.  However, since the Bush tax cuts went into effect in 2003, the economy's growth rate (3.5 percent) has been better than the average for the 1980s (3.1) and 1990s (3.3).  Will continues “Today's unemployment rate (4.6 percent) is lower than the average for the 1990s (5.8) -- lower, in fact, than the average for the past 40 years (6.0)”. No jump start is needed, Ms. Pelosi, and leave the economy alone, cut taxes and cut spending.

The price of oil is down by 20% as is the price of gasoline, with market forces of supply and demand driving the changes.  And by the way the total government tax take on gasoline is 18% per gallon, or at $3.00/gallon this equates to 54 cents per gallon in taxes.  This is double the 8-9% profits to the oil companies, who in turn plow billions of this back into exploration. This paid off recently with the discovery of a new oil deposit in the Gulf of Mexico estimated to be 15 billion barrels.  Wouldn’t it be great if the government were as efficient with the billions it takes in finding new energy sources? Gas tax cuts, anyone?

Cesar Conda and Daniel Clifton recently wrote in National Review that Bush has some explaining to do about the economy (http://tinyurl.com/yz77yu).  A lot of people including most of the media have a lot of explaining to do, too. 

Why don’t we know this good news?

For example, “as of the close of the markets on October 16, 2006, a total of $5.7 trillion in new shareholder wealth has been created since the tax-cut agreement was reached on May 20, 2003. Total dividend and share repurchases increased an astonishing 123 percent to over $600 billion for the 12-month period ended in June. Total household net worth is up $14.4 trillion, or 37 percent, since the tax cuts”.

Instead of touting this amazing record of success to America’s investor class, Republicans have been virtually silent about the economy this campaign season. These accomplishments don’t speak for themselves.  Someone must say so, and very loudly.  A major mistake in communications is made if the GOP assumes that their worst enemies in the media and the political left will carry this message for them to the voters. 

A cursory review of campaign press releases since September generated by Senate GOP incumbents in tight races found no specific mention of the economic and stock market payoffs related to the cap-gains and dividend tax-rate cuts of 2003.  Why can’t they standup for themselves?  A terrific historically positive economic message is being ignored.

Michael R. Fox, Ph.D., is the Director Center for Science, Climate and Environment at GRIH. He can be reached via email at mfox@grassrootinstitute.org

 

October 25, 2006

© 2009 Grassroot Institute of Hawaii | Home | Site Map | Contact