Per the suggestion of one of Hawaii's lawmakers, I am submitting my assessment of the future energy sources for Hawaii.

Both parties perhaps driven by political forces behind the scenes, are touting alternative energy sources as the route to energy independence for Hawaii.

These sources include wind, solar, ocean waves, biofuels such as ethanol, and geothermal. All have major energy and engineering problems so severe that they are not alternatives at all, but merely supplementary.

Bulk supplies of low cost electricity has been a THE major form of energy essential for the strength and prosperity of our state and nation. If we are to continue to reliably supply electrical energy in the future, we must examine carefully the details of these supplementary forms of energy.

The problems are severe and limiting.

Wind

Wind energy is intended to supply electrical energy by spinning turbines with windmills. Such studies have been continuing for nearly 30 years. Our nation is littered with failed wind energy projects. The problems include:

a. It is too intermittent -- cannot be relied upon to meet a scheduled demand. With thousands of windmills around the nation, not a single dispatchable kw-hr has ever been produced.

b. It is too variable -- such energy varies both in voltage and frequency. Both depend upon wind speed, which is known to be extremely variable---including zero speed (no energy)

c. It is too unpredictable -- As such wind energy is a very unreliable form of electricity.

d. Its popularity among wind mill owners is twofold---first it is an excellent source of good public relations.

e. Second and most important, wind energy is a huge source of tax write-offs. Corporate support exists primarily because of favorable tax treatments---including federal accelerated depreciation allowances, direct tax credits of 0.18 cents/kw-hr, and many other tax exemptions and subsidies provided by state and local authorities. The cost and engineering data are too incomplete to make well-informed long range energy decisions. We do know that lots of windfarms have failed around the country, including here in Hawaii.

f. Wind energy requires the presence of a backup system of equal capacity and greater reliability to produce electricity when the wind doesn't blow.

g. It is too costly, especially when the heavy subsidies -- which we will all pay at some point -- are factored in.

h. The windfarm and the equally sized backup system raises the huge question, "Why have the unreliable windfarm systems at all?"

i. It should be noted that as an example of the huge subsidies for the windmill owners, Florida Power and Light in 2002 and 2003 paid ZERO taxes on revenues of more than $2 billion dollars. The rest of us paid FP&L's tax bills. That‚s why FP&L likes windmills.

j. A good website for evaluating world wide wind energy problems is here - http://www.windaction.org

Solar

Solar energy has been around and studied as a source of energy since the days of Archimedes. Problems with solar electric energy include:

a. It is too intermittent. As with wind, this form of energy is very dilute. (A few watts/sq meter of collector on a sunny day, less energy if cloudy, and zero energy at night).

b. It is too variable

c. It is too unpredictable

d. It is too unreliable---failed solar facilities, used mainly for space heating, litter the mainland, with the owners quietly shutting them down and using existing sources of electricity.

e. Several foreign nations such as Japan and Switzerland have considered solar energy as a future source of electricity and both have found that solar electric energy is far too costly.

f. As with wind energy, solar energy is also heavily subsidized. The subsidies distort market forces and preventing competition.

g. Large solar electric facilities would also require large backup systems to reliably produce electrical energy at night and in cloudy weather.

Geothermal

Geothermal energy has been described as "Mining heat" from depths below the surface. This energy form presents a large and varied mix of engineering difficulties that will require many complex site-specific problems be solved-- if they can be solved at all.

a. Some forms of geothermal energy include clean hot water, hot water brines, wet steam, and dry steam. All of these present engineering problems. For example, clean hot water cannot be used to make electricity, but can be used for space heating, as long as the heating demand does not exceed the energy supplied. Thus, it is very limited in its applicability.

b. Dry steam also has engineering problems, but it can and is being used to produce electricity as long as the demand does not exceed the supply.

c. A major limiting factor in geothermal energy is the low thermal conductivity of the geologic materials below the surface of the Earth, whether solid or molten.

Ethanol

There are major problems with ethanol. Economic, engineering, agricultural, corrosion in engines, etc.

a. Contrary to the cheery supporters, a gallon of ethanol contains only 2/3 the energy of a gallon of gasoline (77,000 Btu's vs 116,000 Btu's). The mileage will drop proportionally to the amount of ethanol in the mix. In other words, getting from Point A to Point B using ethanol is inefficient.

b. It takes as much or more energy (mostly fossil energy) to make the gallon of ethanol, as is in the gallon of ethanol. There is little or no reduction in the use of fossil fuel, and therefore little reduction in the overall emission of greenhouse gases. See this informative URL and interview with Professor David Pimentel of Cornell.

c. An ethanol economy will require huge masses of agricultural land. The competition for the land on which corn is grown is increasing between ethanol use and food production use. Rough numbers indicate that it requires about 4 gallons of water to produce 1 gallon of ethanol.

d. Corn prices are increasing in the commodities markets. The price per bushel of corn has increased from $2.50 to $3.70 since the summer of 2006, which is worrying cattle, pork, and poultry producers. Farm products such as milk, butter, cheese, and eggs will increase. It is also concerns the food industry which uses prodigious amounts of corn and corn by-products such as corn syrup.

e. Even with 10% ethanol mixtures corrosion problems are now emerging in engines, especially marine engines. The corrosion problems worsen with the E85 mixture.

f. The popularity of ethanol among the big corporate interests is primarily attributable to massive subsidies and tax credits. These tax credits are in excess of 50 cents/gallon of ethanol. The tax payers and ethanol consumers are forced to pay for these, too, directly or indirectly.

Wave Energy

This form of energy production is being proposed in Hawaii even before pilot plant facilities have been operated, studied, or evaluated by engineers.

a. The technology is not well developed and engineering and cost performances are relatively unknown. The technology is far too immature to be considered a timely or realistic electrical energy solution.

b. One "proof of principle" facility, the "Limpet", is a small 500kw project located in Scotland. However, there is very little information about the construction costs, maintenance costs (being immersed in pounding sea water for years portend serious maintenance, sand, and corrosion problems) or operating costs.

c. Multi-year performance data are also necessary for good engineering evaluations. To risk Hawaii‚s energy future on this undeveloped technology would not only be irresponsible, it would be a disservice to Hawaii's citizens, giving them false hope.

d. Since the ocean waves go "flat" at times and produce zero energy, wave energy systems also need an equally reliable backup electrical system.

e. As mentioned several times above, this begs the question: Why build them at all?

Before the state goes any further down this road of unreliable and costly energy, poor performance, and the false economics of subsidies, tax credits and backup systems, Hawaii state leaders need to understand the extraordinary cost and engineering limits to the energy options they are promoting.

Michael R. Fox, Ph.D., is the science and energy reporter for Hawaii Reporter and the Director of the Center for Science, Climate, & Environment at the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii. A resident of Kaneohe, he has nearly 40 years experience in the energy field. He has also taught chemistry and energy at the university level. His interest in the communication of science has led to several communications awards, hundreds of speeches, and many appearances on television and talk shows. He can be reached via email at mailto:foxm011@hawaii.rr.com.